Betting Discipline – Fun Bets and the Inevitable Losing Runs
This article was the first in a series on Finding an Edge in Sports Betting. It covered the tools you need to become a successful gambling entrepreneur. While this is the most important aspect of winning against the bookies or other betting exchange players, it’s not the only requirement. Many who are able to find the elusive edge in betting don’t make long-term profits. This is probably because they lack discipline.
Betting discipline is your ability to manage losing runs and only place bets when you have an edge. Many otherwise successful gamblers find themselves in trouble because of fun bets or interest bets. Any bet that you place on a bet that isn’t in your usual range of ‘value bets’ is a fun bet. You could place a wager on Monday night football, even though it’s not your favorite sport, or you might place a wager at Wolverhampton on a race while you wait for your main bet at Newmarket. These types of bets can drain your profits from your main bets. These are the ones that you feel you have an advantage over the market.
You would have an advantage if your local casino offered a special deal where they toss a coin every hour and offer everyone 11/10 on heads. This offer will pay off long-term. If you back heads every time, you’ll win money. Let’s assume that this offer was limited at $100 per person. You would expect a $5 profit on each bet (50% of 100*2.1) – $100). If you go to the casino every hour, you can expect to make an average of $30 per day if you visit the casino before the hour. You have an advantage and you are exploiting it to make a profit. You can play blackjack if you make a permanent residence at the casino during the day. If the casino has a 2% edge per hand, and you play 60 hands per hour, you’d have an expected loss $12 per hour. While you wait to place your hourly “value bet”, you are also placing smaller bets which more than offset the profit from the coin toss wager.
Although the above example is unlikely to be true because casinos don’t offer these incentives, many punters still follow a similar path every day. While they might visit their local bookies or watch the racing live on TV, the general policy is to support a horse in all races. As in the casino example, most punters aren’t disciplined enough to wait for bets that they believe they have an advantage with. It’s fine to place a wager in any race, but only if you are able to find one that you consider value 해외배팅. Your lack of discipline will result in you losing all the hard work that went into making the value selections.
If I value a horse’s true odds as 2.26, and decide to lay it at 2.0 on Betfair unless my true odds change due to new information, I will not lay any higher than that. Many people might believe that the horse’s 2.02 is close enough. If you are going to break the maximum lay price or minimum return price, there is no need for it. If 2.02 seems close enough, 2.04 will be close to 2.02 while 2.06 will be close to 2.04. What is the right line? If your true odds are right, you will be laying the horse before you know it.
You could predict the likelihood of an event but lose money over time because you couldn’t resist the temptation to place a bet, even though it was not the right price. You can bet just for fun, which is fine. However, if you want long-term success you must have the discipline and temperament to reject ‘fun bets and bets that aren’t within your price range. You should always get the best price regardless of whether you bet only when your price criteria are met or if your sole purpose is to have fun. This means opening as many accounts and taking advantage of free bets offered by bookies.
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